What it is
The first Ground Zero weekly report, from IPG’s programme under its Community Based Organizations Caucus on Politics and Elections. It reviews the week’s events in Kenya’s electoral system ahead of the 8 August 2017 general election. The cover is undated, but the text covers events from about 1 to 7 January 2017.

Main argument
Unless Kenya quickly consolidates and legitimises its electoral systems, institutions and processes, the 2017 election threatens the country’s democracy, peace and stability. IPG says the opposition’s interference and obstruction, and its lack of clear support for the process, have left electoral institutions and timelines in limbo, so August could arrive with the country unprepared. These are the report’s views on a contested political situation.

Key points

• Legitimacy: The report says the real test of Kenya’s democracy is whether the electoral system inspires confidence in its process and results. Without the support of the major political players, the system is “one-legged.”
• Election law amendments: Jubilee used its numbers in both houses of Parliament in December 2016 to pass amendments, mainly to keep the electoral timelines lawful. The main controversy is the manual backup to the electronic system, which the opposition rejects and Jubilee defends.
• IEBC commissioners: The selection of commissioners became a high-stakes political contest. The first shortlist of five for chairperson was revoked, and the later nominees face criticism over interview scores and regional ties. IPG says the commission will struggle to win public trust, and that delay will affect the election.
• Parallel tallying: IPG warns about a media owner’s plan to set up a tallying system that rivals the IEBC’s. It cites the Kriegler Commission’s advice to use a single results transmission system, to avoid the dispute seen in 2007.
• Mass voter registration: The second phase was due to begin on 16 January 2017, using biometric kits, with a target of six million new voters. Voter education and party mobilisation had not yet started in earnest.
• Parties: ODM and Jubilee announced membership drives ahead of party primaries, with Jubilee planning smart-card membership cards and ODM targeting four million members.
• Violence: The 2017 election is expected to be the most competitive in Kenya’s history, especially locally. Violence over MCA, MP and governor seats is described as inevitable, and the report calls for early conflict detection and management.

Sections

1. Introduction
2. IEBC Nominees Controversy
3. Controversy on Election Laws
4. The IEBC
5. Political Party Activities
6. Election/Campaign Violence
7. Conclusion

Recommendations

1. The government and opposition should close ranks behind the whole electoral process.
2. Parliament should speed up vetting of the IEBC commissioners so they take office at once.
3. The opposition and its affiliated media should drop the idea of parallel tallying centres.
4. Political and civil society actors should mobilise people for mass voter registration.
5. Political parties should support the electoral timelines and not suspend or delay them.
6. The security services should plan to contain localised violence before and after the election.
7. The international community should back the electoral system and push political actors to support it.

Conclusion
Only six months remain, so the work of calming polarisation and getting everyone behind the electoral system must start now. IPG says Kenyans should demand that the system get the support it needs to run a credible election on 8 August 2017.